The recently published medical report for Dzohkhar Tsarnaev lists a number of heavy injuries; the most severe is a gunshot wound which "entered through the inside of his mouth", damaged his skull base, jaw and ear and exited through the neck. The report doesn't say if this wound was self-inflicted or not.
The above photo was shot by Sgt. Sean Murphy of the Massachussetts police and published by the Boston magazine on July 18th. It shows Tsarnaev at the boat, raising his hands to indicate surrender.
Taking this photo as a time stamp and confronting it with the medical report generates four possible scenarios:
1 - The wound was self-inflicted before the surrender
2 - The wound was self-inflicted after the surrender
3 - The wound was not self-inflicted and inflicted before the surrender
4 - The wound was not self-inflicted and inflicted after the surrender
Each scenario has its specific weaknesses and problems. But only one can be true. Probably the one with the least weaknesses and problems. The following reality check is in part based on my own considerations, in part on information obtained from E. F. Beall's firedoglake blog:
http://my.firedoglake.com/efbeall/2013/08/20/medical-report-dzhokhar-tsarnaev-was-shot-from-inside-his-mouth/
1 - The wound was self-inflicted before the surrender
Narrative: Tsarnaev tried to commit suicide by shooting himself in the mouth. But he survived. After that, he decided to surrender. This version was promoted by John Miller, the FBI expert of CBS.
Plausibility problems:
- No gun was found. Where's the gun?
- His physical condition after the shot would not have allowed him to climb over the side of the boat and raise his hand for surrender.
- The surrender photos show him in a passable physical condition apparently without a big gunshot wound in his head.
- No motive to surrender: for what reason didn't he, after the attempted suicide, again try to shoot himself? He was still able to move his arms and legs.
2 - The wound was self-inflicted after the surrender
Narrative: After raising his hands for surrendering, he suddenly grabbed under his trouses, drew a gun and shot himself into the mouth.
Plausibility problems:
- No gun was found or confiscated from him. Where's the gun?
- On the surrender photo he is under tight control of the police. Several gun lasers are pointing at him. If he would undertake even the slightest attempt to draw something out of his clothing, he would be shot at once by a police sniper. No chance to put a gun into his mouth and fire.
3 - The wound was not self-inflicted and inflicted before the surrender
Narrative: When the police fired on the boat, one of the shots accidentally went through his mouth.
Update: An alternative narrative is that the wound was inflicted on him even hours before, during the Watertown shootout. CNN's Poppy Harlow subscribes to this theory.
Plausibility problems:
- The probability that a bullet entered through his open mouth is extremely small. It implies that he had his mouth open and directed exactly towards the line of fire, resulting in a "magic bullet" story.
- His physical condition after the shot would not have allowed him to climb over the side of the boat and raise his hands for surrender - let alone to flee from the Watertown shootout scene.
- The surrender photos show him in a passable physical condition apparently without a big gunshot wound in his head.
4 - The wound was not self-inflicted and inflicted after the surrender
Narrative: He was shot in the mouth accidentally or intentionally by the police (or, unlikely, someone else) after the surrender.
Plausibility problems:
- No motive for the police to shoot at someone who had already surrendered and was under control.
